The persistence of depression score.

OBJECTIVE To construct a score that allows prediction of major depressive episode (MDE) persistence in individuals with MDE using determinants of persistence identified in previous research. METHOD Data were derived from 250 subjects from the general population with new MDE according to DSM-III-R. These subjects were recruited from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS), using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Determinants for persistence were transformed into a practical risk score using proportional hazards models and bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS The risk of MDE persistence after 12 months was 23%. The score comprised measures of physical illness, social support, depression severity and recurrency, and duration of previous episodes. With increasing categories of these measures, the predicted risks increased from 7 to 40%. CONCLUSION We constructed the Persistence of Depression Score (PDS) showing reasonable performance. The PDS could be of importance in clinical practice to support treatment decisions.